Epidemiological and economic evaluation of foot-and-mouth disease control strategies in the Netherlands.

Abstract

A Markov chain model for a microcomputer is described in which the economic aspects of control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease in cattle and pig herds can be examined. Epidemiologically, the most favourable results for the Netherlands were obtained using the current strategy: annual vaccination of cattle combined with slaughtering of affected herds and ring vaccination. However, it is suggested that annual costs could be reduced considerably by ceasing routine prophylactic vaccination, provided that adequate measures are taken when outbreaks occur. It is concluded that the increased risk of export bans, not yet included in this simulation model, is unlikely to outweigh the benefits of reducing annual direct costs. All pathways and control strategy, cost elements and default values included in the model are tabulated as are the probable epidemiology during an outbreak, secondary outbreaks, total direct economic losses per outbreak and per year, and a results sensitivity analysis. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)