Making the ambition mechanism of the

Paris Agreement work

5 December 2018

SUMMARY
The ambition of countries for mitigation action and support has to increase.
This is the clear message of countless reports and analyses shared during the
2018 Talanoa Dialogue that has taken stock of collective progress towards
the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement's answer to this
need for more climate action is its ‘ambition mechanism’ which obliges coun-
This policy brief comes out of a re- tries to consider the outputs of the global stocktake every five years when
search project carried out from Sep-
tember-November 2018 by Wa-
they review their own ambition level. This policy brief looks at how countries
geningen University in partnership are preparing to enable the ambition mechanism and suggests measures
with One World Trust and GLOBE. both at national and international level that are key to making it work.
This brief is available at: http://
www.oneworldtrust.org/climate-
change.html
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
About the authors: Karlsson-
Vinkhuyzen is assistant professor in
For the national (regional for the EU) level the following measures are suggested:
the Public Administration and Policy
 Organise national (and regional) reflection processes on the outcome of the
Group at Wageningen University and
leader of the research project. Kessler Talanoa Dialogue during 2019 with a view to (1) enhance ambition and
is Master student in Sustainable De- bring this to the UN Climate Summit in 2019, and (2) evaluate the experi-
velopment Diplomacy at Wageningen ence towards designing future reflections on the global stocktake;
University and research assistant in
the project.  Enable the parliament to take a central role in the reflection process ensur-
ing broad legitimacy and consideration of cross-sectoral policy implications;
To contact the authors please email
sylvia.karlsson-vinkhuyzen@wur.nl  Invite relevant actors beyond the government and parliament - civil society,
NGOs, business actors, media, academia - to reflect on how to design an
effective national ambition mechanism;
© One World Trust.  Incorporate a clause in legislative frameworks that imposes a review of am-
Readers are encouraged to quote or
bition levels for action and support at least every five years to ensure the
reproduce from this paper for
educational purposes only. timely consideration of the outcomes of the global stocktake;
As the copyright holder, the
One World Trust requests due  Ensure that the process of developing (and revising) national ambition lev-
acknowledgement and a copy of the els is based on the advice of independent and broad expertise.
publication.
For the international level the following steps are suggested:
126, Sussex Way
London N7 6RR
 Make the outputs of the global stocktake as clear and useful as possible for
Tel: +44 (0)1666 890338 informing national reflection processes for enhanced ambition;

Email: info@oneworldtrust.org
 Provide mechanisms and support for cross-national learning on how to align
www.oneworldtrust.org legislative and policy frameworks with the global stocktake and how nation-
al reflection processes can be organised for an effective ambition mecha-
Charity Commission No 210180 nism.

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INTRODUCTION
Many consider the so called ‘ambition mechanism’ more ambitious than the previous NDC in terms of
of the Paris Agreement (PA) an essential part of its action and support.
design with the potential to ensure successively The core idea of the ambition mechanism is that
more ambitious action by countries, and thereby every country shall reflect on the outcome of the
achieving its objectives. This mechanism (see fig- global stocktake and use this as input to enhance
ure 1) consists of a global stocktake every five their level of ambition if the stocktake shows this
years, starting in 2023, where countries will assess is necessary.1 This can take the formal route of
“collective progress towards achieving the pur- revising upwards their NDC, or the informal route
pose of [the PA] and its long-term goal” (Article of simply galvanizing national action (among gov-
14.1). The outcome of the global stocktake “shall ernmental actors, civil society, businesses etc.) in
inform” (Article 14.3) subsequent Nationally De- the short term. The ambition mechanism was a
termined Contributions (NDCs) that also have to creative invention of the negotiators of the PA -
represent the highest possible ambition and be now it is up to countries to show how it could

Figure 1 - The ambition mechanism (sources feeding into the global stocktake process are still to be negotiated,
same applies to the common timeframes of future NDCs)

TESTING THE AMBITION MECHANISM - with the Talanoa process can still provide some
THE TALANOA DIALOGUE insights into how countries are starting to engage
The Talanoa Dialogue taking place in 2018 is some- with the ambition mechanism.
what of a trial run of the global stocktake. Its objec- Our analysis shows that 44 of the 184 Parties to
tive is to take stock of collective progress towards the PA made submissions to the Talanoa Dialogue
the long-term goal of the PA and encourage en- portal and governments organised 37 Talanoa
hanced ambition among countries.2 It aims to do so Dialogues either at regional or national level. 4
by conducting a dialogue based on story-telling for These sessions included story-telling and showcas-
creating empathy and trust. It was launched in Jan- ing of best practices. They were mostly organised
uary 2018 with a preparatory phase in which all as one day multi-stakeholder dialogues and not
actors were invited to hold Talanoa Dialogues in linked to national/regional policy processes. The
their own context and submit input to the global exception here is Peru, which designed a three-
dialogue. All input, as well as the outcome of the month long public deliberation process through-
IPCC special report on the impacts of global warm- out the country including stakeholders from the
ing of 1.5 °C that came out in October 2018, pro- private sector, NGOs, civil society, indigenous
vides the basis for the political phase taking place communities, academics and public institutions.5
at the 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24) in The national dialogue was organized by the Peru-
Poland on 11 December.3 While the political out- vian Ministry of Environment with the aim to de-
come is what countries are expected to take home velop the regulations of the framework climate
and reflect on, the way countries have engaged legislation.

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INSPIRING EXAMPLES OF NATIONAL ACTIONS Mexico
FOR ALIGNMENT Mexico, one of the first countries with a framework
climate legislation as of 2012, can be considered a
Very little is known about what the processes frontrunner in the formalization of the PA’s ambition
through which countries have developed their mechanism. Mexico took an important step towards
NDCs look like, what they plan to do with the Ta- the alignment of national and international policy
lanoa Dialogue outcome or how they plan to re- processes in July 2018 through the adoption of a
flect on the outcome of future global stocktakes Decree to update the General Law on Climate
and let their NDCs ‘be informed’ thereby. Our re- Change. The updating process aimed at fully captur-
search is an effort to start filling this gap. We par- ing the provisions of the PA and the targets of Mexi-
ticularly looked for countries that seemed to be co’s NDC.
ahead of the curve and that could serve as ‘best
Article 63 of the amended law anchors the NDC de-
practice’ in preparing their institutional framework
velopment in its climate legislation.8 It determines
for the PA’s ambition mechanism. We share the
that the inter-ministerial Commission on Climate
stories of the Republic of the Marshall Islands,
Change (CICC) has to propose and approve the ad-
Mexico and the European Union that can inspire
justments or modifications to scenarios, trajectories,
others. These three stories illustrate how both
actions and goals in its National Strategy on Climate
existing legislation can be adapted or new legisla-
Change (ENCC) and its NDC in accordance with its
tion adopted to enable the ambition mechanism.
five-year review cycle. The Ministry of Environment
and Natural Resources together with the CICC
should revise the NDC in line with the PA and the
Republic of the Marshall Islands decisions which emerge from it. The same review
process applies to the National Climate Change
This vulnerable Small Island Developing State ac- Strategy at least once every ten years regarding miti-
tively pushes for more ambitious pledges by Par- gation policy and every six years regarding adapta-
ties, which is reflected in its active role in the High tion policy. Importantly, Article 98 of the amended
Ambition Coalition. The Republic of the Marshall law states that the national climate change policy
Islands was the first country to communicate an will be subject to periodic and systemic evaluation
updated NDC to the UNFCCC in November 2018 which will take the IPCC reports and the periodic
with an enhanced 2030 target of 45% emissions evaluations established within the PA into account.
reduction below 2010 levels.6 This evaluation process might then result in a pro-
posal to modify, amend or totally reorient the na-
The Republic of the Marshall Islands adopted its
tional climate change policy.
long-term low GHG emission development strate-
gy, the Tile Til Eo (‘Lightening the way’) climate Mexico’s climate law incorporates the various na-
strategy, in September 2018, which outlines a tional instruments under one overarching frame-
pathway to zero emissions by 2050.7 It formalizes work. The Special Program on Climate Change
a national ambition mechanism by requiring a re- (PECC) constitutes the short-term guidance for ac-
view of the long-term strategy at least every five tions to be undertaken at the federal level in line
years. This revision process also includes the rec- with the ENCC. The next PECC will cover the period
ommendation of new targets for subsequent NDCs 2019-2024. In 2016, Mexico also communicated its
which has to take place one year ahead of its NDC long-term strategy, the so-called Mid-Century Strat-
submission to the UNFCCC. For this purpose, a egy (MCS), which emerges from its ENCC (2013) and
domestic process will be established to monitor its foresees a reduction of 50% of national GHGs by
implementation and to ensure effective review 2050 below 2000 levels.9 The strategy makes some
and update processes. links to the international level as it states that Mexi-
co is committed to update its long-term strategy
according to the provisions agreed under the UN-
FCCC. In case of a revision of the MCS this shall be
communicated to the UNFCCC to make sure that this
information can be considered in the global stock-
take process.

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The European Union (EU) CREATING A LEARNING COMMUNITY
The EU will establish its own mechanism to close am- Countries are not comfortable holding each other
bition gaps at a regional level through the adoption of individually to account for living up to obligations
the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Un-
under the Paris Agreement except through mutual
ion in December 2018.10 This regional ambition mech-
encouragement and support. This is why the Com-
anism builds upon Member States’ (MS) submissions
mittee of Implementation and Compliance (Article
of long-term strategies with a mid-century perspec-
tive and so-called integrated national energy and 15) is explicitly facilitative in nature excluding any
climate plans covering ten-year periods starting in form of sanctions.14 It follows that the only link
2021 to 2030. By 31 December 2019, MS need to between the collective accountability mechanism -
submit their final national plans, after draft plans the global stocktake - and individual state ac-
have undergone an assessment by the Commission. countability is how seriously countries take the
In this assessment, the Commission compares the obligation to reflect on the outcome of the global
collective efforts communicated by MS in their stocktake and enable this to inspire higher level of
bottom-up national plans against the Union’s 2030 ambition. Considering the urgency to step up am-
targets for energy and climate which impose a 40% bition it is not wise to wait patiently for a few
cut in GHG emissions compared to 1990 levels, a rounds of 5-year stocktake cycles with some ad
share of renewable energy of at least 32% and an hoc experimentation by countries in how to make
improvement of energy efficiency of at least 32.5%. the ambition mechanism work. Rather, learning
The Commission can express country-specific recom- needs to happen fast on questions such as:
mendations for the final energy and climate plans in
case a MS does not live up to its commitments.  how to align national legislative and policy
Article 38 of the Regulation links and aligns the EU frameworks with the 5-year ambition mecha-
ambition mechanism with Article 14 of the PA.11 The nism so that NDC development can be in-
article states that the results of the global stocktake formed by the global stocktake
shall inform the review of the Regulation. Within six  how to organise earnest and uplifting national
months of each global stocktake, the Commission has reflection processes on global (lack of) pro-
to report to the European Parliament and to the gress and national responsibility with broad
Council on the operation of the Regulation and may participation
suggest proposals to ensure its effective implementa-  how to enable parliaments to play a central
tion. The revision of the Regulation is adjusted to the
role in their national reflection processes con-
global stocktake’s five-year cycle. The updating pro-
sidering their legislative role and their role – on
cess of national energy and climate plans, which
should only undertake modifications to reflect in-
behalf of citizens - to exercise government
creased overall ambition, is supposed to take place by oversight
30 June 2024 and every ten years thereafter, thus  how to use the reflection process both to make
right between the global stocktake and the due date a careful analysis of experience and unlock
for new NDCs. The outcomes of the 2028 global enthusiasm for doing more across all sectors
stocktake could then be considered in the prepara- Countries have to learn fast. This is best done with
tion of the second national plans whose drafts are approaches rooted in the legal, administrative and
due by 1 January 2029. cultural traditions of a country yet being open to
The EU’s NDC ambition level is fixed by the ETS Di- learning from inspiring neighbours from far and
rective and the Effort Sharing Regulation (non-ETS wide. Helpful for this learning process would be if
sectors).12 The revised EU ETS Directive (04/2018) countries in their NDCs described the process
specifies that in the context of each global stocktake, through which they were developed including how
the provisions of the Directive will be kept under re-
the outcome of the global stocktake was consid-
view. The Effort Sharing Regulation, adopted in May
ered.15 Cross-country learning can be further sup-
2018, determines that its review in 2024 and every
five years thereafter can be informed by the global
ported by international institutions and under-
stocktake. pinned with solid data collection from the re-
On 28 November, the European Commission an- search community.
nounced its long-term strategic vision to achieve net-
zero GHG emissions by 2050.13 The vision includes
two net-zero emissions scenarios by 2050, but policy
proposals to achieve this vision have not yet been
developed. There is a possibility that EU 2030 level ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ambitions could also be enhanced as a result of this We would like to thank Claire Dupont, Sebastian
and of the outcome of the Talanoa Dialogue through Oberthür and Robert Whitfield for their useful
a revised NDC by 2020. comments. Any errors remain our own.

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Endnotes

1
UNEP (2017). The Emissions Gap Report 2017. United Nationa Environment Programme (UNEP),
Nairobi.
2
UNFCCC (2017). Draft decision 1/CP.23. Conference of the Parties, Bonn.
3
For an overview of all the inputs received during the Dialogue’s preparatory phase, see the analysis
provided by the UNFCCC Secretariat: https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/9fc76f74-a749-4eec-9a06-
5907e013dbc9/downloads/1ct8fja1t_768448.pdf
4
Non-party actors submitted 429 contributions to the portals and organised many additional events.
5
For more details on the Peruvian Talanoa Dialogue see http://www.minam.gob.pe/cambioclimatico/
dialoguemos-reglamento-lmcc/
6
RMI (2018). The Republic of the Marshall Islands Nationally Determined Contribution.
7
RMI (2018). Tile Til Eo 2050 Climate Strategy “Lightening the way”.
8
DOF 13/07/2018. Decreto por el que se reforman y adicionan diversas disposiciones de la Ley General
de Cambio Climático, Mexico City.
9
SEMARNAT-INECC. (2016). Mexico’s Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy. Ministry of Environment
and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) and National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (INECC),
Mexico City.
10
Council of the European Union (2018). Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and
the Council on the Governance of the Energy Union, Brussels.
11
Council of the European Union (2018). Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and
the Council on the Governance of the Energy Union, Brussels.
12
EU (2018). Directive (EU) 2018/410 of the European Parliament and the Council of 14 March 2018
amending Directive 2003/87/EC, Brussels.
13
European Commission. (2018). A Clean Planet for all: A European strategic long-term vision for a
prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy, COM(2018) 773 final, Brussels.
14
This means that in common with so many international environmental agreements there is no room
for ‘enforcing compliance’ at the international level. The national level is where enforcement has to
happen - coming out of formal or informal accountability mechanisms, see Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen SI et
al. (2018) Entry into force and then? The Paris agreement and state accountability. Climate Policy 18
(5): 593-599.
15
The Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) has made proposals for this in the negotiations on the rule
book for the Paris Agreement, see Republic of Korea on behalf of EIG (2017) EIG Submission on
Matters Relating to the Global Stocktake Referred to in Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, available at
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissionsstaging/Pages/Home.aspx. Based on an analysis of NDCs
already submitted with the help of the NDC Explorer (see https://klimalog.die-gdi.de/ndc/), it is clear
that only a very limited number of countries addressed the link between international and national
review processes and it was not possible to determine if those who did actually considered the global
stocktake as formulations were vague.

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