Abstract
Drought-related risk estimation is widely acknowledged as a tool towards enhancing drought preparedness and minimizing impacts on people, the economy and the environment. In this paper a method is proposed for the risk-based assessment and prioritisation of long-term drought mitigation options in order to support decision making for drought planning. The assessment combines water balance modelling, hazard analysis, and risk and cost effectiveness analysis. The proposed approach allows an improved understanding of drought-related risks by following a probabilistic analysis of drought impacts under different mitigation options. The method is applied in a drought-prone area with water scarcity problems, the Greek island of Syros. The assessment focuses on agriculture and domestic water use, the two main water using sectors in the island. Six mitigation options are cross-compared in terms of contribution to future drought risk reduction using three criteria: risk, vulnerability and benefit-cost ratio. The results validate the use of risk-based assessment of mitigation options as a valuable tool for improved drought management.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Belayneh A, Adamowski J, Khalil B, Ozga-Zielinski B (2014) Long-term SPI drought forecasting in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia using wavelet neural network and wavelet support vector regression models. J Hydrol 508:418–429
Birkmann J (ed) (2006) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards – towards disaster resilient societies. United Nation University Press, Tokyo
Blaney HF, Criddle WD (1950) Determining water requirements in irrigated area from climatological irrigation data. US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Tech. Pap. No. 96, 44 p
Blaney HF, Criddle WD (1962) Determining consumptive use and water requirements. USDA, Technical Bull. No. 1275, 59 p
Cacciamani C, Morgillo A, Marchesi S, Pavan V (2007) Monitoring and forecasting drought on a regional scale: Emilia-Romagna region. Water Sci Technol Libr 62(1):29–48
Cancelliere A, Nicolosi V, Rossi G (2009) Assessment of drought risk in water supply systems, In: A. Iglesias et al. (eds) Coping with Drought Risk in Agriculture and Water Supply Systems, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research 26, Springer, pp 93–109. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4020-9045-5_8
Cubillo F, Garrote L (2008) Drought risk and vulnerability in water supply systems. In: López-Francos A. (ed) Drought management: scientific and technological innovations, Options Méditerranéennes: Série A. Séminaires Méditerranéens, n80, Zaragoza: CIHEAM, pp 21 - 27
Dalezios NR, Loukas A, Vasiliades L, Liakopoulos E (2000) Severity-duration-frequency analysis of droughts and wets periods in Greece. Hydrol Sci J 45(5):751–770. doi:10.1080/02626660009492375
Dziegielewski B (2003) Long-term and short-term measures for coping with drought. In: G. Rossi et al. (eds) Tools for drought mitigation in mediterranean regions, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp 319–339
Fontaine M, Steinemann A (2009) Assessing vulnerability to natural hazards: impact-based method and application to drought in Washington State. Natural Hazards Review 10(1):11–18. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2009)10:1(11)
Gonzalez-Serrano E, Rodriguez-Mirasol J, Codero T, Koussis A, Rodriguez J (2005) Cost of reclaimed municipal wastewater for applications in seasonally stressed semi-arid regions. J Water Supply Res Technol AQUA 54(6):355–369
Hayes M, Svodoba M, Wilhite D, Vanyarkho O (1999) Monitoring the 1996 drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80(3):429–438
Hayes M, Wilhelmi O, Knutson C (2004) Reducing drought risk: bridging theory and practice. Nat Hazards Rev 5(2):106–113. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2004)5:2(106))
Hellenic Ministry of Development (2008) Development of Systems and Tools for Water Resources Management in the Hydrological Department of the Aegean Islands. 2001-2008, Athens
Iglesias A, Garrote L, Martin-Carrasco F (2009) Drought risk management in Mediterranean River Basins. Integr Environ Assess Manag 5(1):11–16. doi:10.1897/IEAM_2008-044.1
Jinno K (1995) Risk assessment of a water supply system during drought. Int J Water Resour Dev 11(2):185–204. doi:10.1080/07900629550042399
Karavitis CA (1999) Decision support systems for drought management strategies in Metropolitan Athens. Water Int 24(1):10–21. doi:10.1080/02508069908692129
Li Y, Ye W, Wang M, Yan X (2009) Climate change and drought: a risk assessment of crop-yield impacts. Clim Res 39:31–46. doi:10.3354/cr00797
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Jan17-22, 1993, Anaheim CA, pp. 179–184
Merabtene T, Kawamura A, Jinno K, Olsson J (2002) Risk assessment for optimal drought management of an integrated water resources system using a genetic algorithm. Hydrol Process 16:2189–2208. doi:10.1002/hyp.1150
Mishra AK, Desai VR (2006) Drought forecasting using feed-forward recursive neural network. Ecol Model 198(1–2):127–138
Mpezes K (2001) Water Management Study for the Cyclades Complex, Directorate of Technical Services, Prefecture of Cyclades, Syros Island
Papazafeiriou GZ (1999) Crop water requirements. ZITI Publications, Thessaloniki
Pizzigalli C, Congedi L, Lionello P, Fahmi AH, Shatanawi M, Chabaane ZL (2011) Climate data analysis in the WASSERMed project. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, EGU2011-8920-1
Pliefke T, Sperbeck ST, Urban M, Peil U, Budelmann H (2007) A Standardized Methodology for Managing Disaster Risk – An Attempt to Remove Ambiguity. The 5th International Probabilistic Workshop, Ghent: ACCO, pp. 283–294
Querner R, van Lanen HAJ (2001) Impact assessment of drought mitigation measures in two adjacent Dutch basins using simulation modelling. J Hydrol 252:51–64. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00452-8
Rossi G, Cancelliere A (2013) Managing drought risk in water supply systems in Europe: a review. Int J Water Resour Dev 29(2):272–289. doi:10.1080/07900627.2012.713848
Rossi G, Cancelliere A, Giuliano G (2005) Case Study: Multicriteria Assessment of Drought Mitigation Measures. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, November/ December, 131(6):449–457. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2005)131:6(449)
Rossi G, Castiglione L, Bonaccorso B (2007) Guidelines for planning and implementing drought mitigation measures. SPRINGER VERLAG GMBH, Netherlands
Rossi G, Nicolosi V, Cancelliere A (2008) Strategic water shortage preparedness plan for complex water supply. Eur Water 23(24):13–28
Shahid S, Behrawan H (2008) Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 46:391–413. doi:10.1007/s11069-007-9191-5
Smith M, Steduto P (2012) Yield response to water: the original FAO water production function. In: Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Fereres E, Raes D (eds) Crop yield response to water, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No66. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, pp 6–13
Stagge JH, Tallaksen LM, Gudmundsson L, Van Loon AF, Stahl K (2015) Candidate distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and SPEI). Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4267
Tigkas D (2008) Drought characterization and monitoring in regions of Greece. Eur Water 23(24):29–39
Todisco F, Mannocchi F, Vergni L (2012) Severity–duration–frequency curves in the mitigation of drought impact: an agricultural case study. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0446-4
Tsakiris G (2009) A paradigm for applying risk and hazard concepts in proactive planning. In: Iglesias et al. (eds) Coping with drought risk in agriculture and water supply systems, advances in natural and technological hazards research 26, Springer, pp 81–89. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4020-9045-5_7
Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2004) Towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI. Water Resour Manag 18(1):1–12
UN/ISDR (2009) Drought risk reduction framework and practices: contributing to the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland & NDMC, Lincoln, Nebraska, U.S.A
UNDP (2011) Mainstreaming Drought Risk Management: A primer. UNON Printshop, Nairobi
Wilhite DA, Hayes MJ, Knutson C, Helm Smith K (2000) Planning for drought: moving from crisis to risk management. J Am Water Resour Assoc 36(4):697–710. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2000.tb04299.x
Wilhite DA, Svoboda M, Hayes M (2007) Understanding the complex impacts of drought: a key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness. Water Resources Management 21:763–774. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5
Wu H, Hubbard KG, Wilhite DA (2004) An agricultural drought risk-assessment model for corn and soybeans. Int J Climatol 24:723–741. doi:10.1002/joc.1028
Acknowledgments
Climate projections used in this paper are a result of the EU-funded FP7 project WASSERMed ‘Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean’ (Grant agreement no.: 244255), WP2 ‘Regional Climate and Water Scenarios’. This study has been partially financed by the EU-funded FP7 project DROUGHT-R&SPI ‘Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing’ (Grant agreement no: 282769).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Giannikopoulou, A.S., Gad, F.K., Kampragou, E. et al. Risk-Based Assessment of Drought Mitigation Options: the Case of Syros Island, Greece. Water Resour Manage 31, 655–669 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1057-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1057-0